Counterpoint: Global XR headset shipments to achieve double-digit growth in 2024

According to Counterpoint's latest forecast for global XR (VR/AR), shipments of extended reality (XR) headsets are expected to increase by 3.9 million units in 2024, reaching double-digit year-on-year growth. Apple's Vision Pro, which will go on sale in the United States on February 2 (pre-sale starts on January 19), will attract user interest and drive industry development, which will benefit existing companies. 2024 will also continue the momentum of 2023, marked by several launches from major companies such as Meta and Sony.

In 2024, we will see the continuation of another trend, the transition from pure virtual reality (VR) to mixed reality (MR), as major players, both existing and upcoming, rush to launch MR products or add pass-through capabilities to the successors of their original headsets. Since Counterpoint considers such headsets as part of its VR category, it still dominates. Although Apple's Vision Pro requires a wired connection to an external battery box, the standalone form factor is still the preferred choice.

Augmented reality (AR) is expected to grow 54% year-over-year in 2024, reversing three consecutive years of decline. This growth will be driven by XREAL's Air 2 and Air 2 Pro AR glasses, which have quickly become the best-selling AR glasses in China. In addition to XREAL, which targets a larger consumer base, AR will be driven by high-spec, high-priced products in niche industries. AR will only account for about 2% of total XR shipments and will remain a small fraction.

Samsung’s potential re-entry into the industry with an MR headset in 2024 would also be appealing, but regardless of its launch price, its contribution to global shipment growth would be lower than Apple’s due to its release at the end of the year.

Pico, owned by TikTok parent ByteDance, is unlikely to fully recover from the setback suffered by its latest model, the Pico 4, in 2023. DPVR, another major Chinese manufacturer, although it remains strong in the Chinese education sector with the launch of the gaming PC VR helmet E4, will find it difficult to break through as a major global player.