IDC: Global smartphone shipments will drop to 1.17 billion units in 2023

According to IDC's latest forecast, global smartphone shipments will fall 3.2% in 2023, totaling 1.17 billion units for the year. This is a downward revision from the 1.1% decline forecast in February. The revision is driven by several factors, including a weak economic outlook and persistent inflation. Despite the lower forecast for 2023, IDC still expects the market to recover in 2024, with year-on-year growth of 6%.

"Our conversations with channel, supply chain partners, and major OEMs all indicate that the recovery will be further delayed and the second half of the year will be weaker," said Nabila Popal, research director for IDC's Mobile and Consumer Device Trackers. "The recovery in consumer demand is much slower than expected in all regions, including China. If 2022 was the year of excess inventory, 2023 will be the year of caution. While everyone wants to let inventory ride on the inevitable wave of recovery, no one wants to hold on to inventory for too long. This also means that brands that take the risk at the right time could gain significant market share."

“Channel inventory remains high in many regions, and while conditions are improving, vendor confidence remains low,” said Ryan Reith, group vice president for IDC’s Mobile and Consumer Devices Trackers. “We continue to see more foldable designs in the market, which is a big step forward for the industry, but the timing is unfortunate given the headwinds. As many companies continue to focus on cutting budgets, the consequences of these decisions are likely to be long-lasting. Now is the time to invest in customers and what they need and want. Marketing enablement, sales incentives, and promotional support should be at the top of the list.”