Counterpoint: iPhone 16 sales increased 20% year-on-year in the first three weeks after launch, and Apple's demand in China is recovering

Apple's new iPhones are off to a strong start in China, with sales up 20% in the first three weeks after launch compared with the 2023 iPhone 15, according to research firm Counterpoint. The company added that the high-end iPhone 16 Pro and Pro Max models are selling particularly well, with their combined sales up 44% compared with similar 2023 models. "We are seeing very strong sales of the iPhone 16 series in China," Counterpoint said.

Apple iPhone 16 has strong initial sales in China

Counterpoint analysts pointed out that the smooth production and pricing strategy of this year's iPhone drove this round of growth, while last year's iPhone 15 had limited initial sales due to production problems.

Although the market was concerned that the iPhone 16 might not perform well in China because the Apple Intelligence feature is not yet available for iPhone models purchased in mainland China, initial sales have shown that the demand for the iPhone 16 in China has clearly exceeded expectations. Analysts predict that the upgrade cycle of this generation of iPhones may become a "historic" moment.

Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives said the strong early sales performance of the iPhone 16 indicates that the Chinese market will recover significantly, driving Apple's so-called "growth renaissance."

Ives linked the expansion to the start of an AI-driven super cycle led by the iPhone 16, maintained his "outperform" rating and $300 price target on Apple, and once again emphasized the potential for Apple's cooperation with Baidu in China's artificial intelligence field, which will effectively enhance iPhone sales.

Looking ahead, as the AI-driven upgrade cycle continues to heat up, Ives predicts that Apple's iPhone sales in fiscal 2025 could exceed 240 million units, while noting that 100 million iPhones will need to be upgraded in 2025.

Competition is still intensifying

However, Apple still faces fierce competition from local brands such as Huawei, Vivo and Xiaomi.

Counterpoint data also showed that total iPhone sales in China fell 2% year-on-year in the past three weeks due to a decline in sales of older models and increased competition from Huawei's Mate and Pura series of phones.

Huawei's latest smartphone went on sale in China on Sept. 20, in lockstep with Apple, highlighting the growing competition in the world's largest smartphone market, where Apple has been losing market share to domestic rivals in recent quarters.

From Cailianshe